One major focus of this blog has been to document and discuss recent actions undertaken by the United States government in the ‘Great Game’ of geopolitics, particularly its military interventions in Central Asia and the Middle East and those covert and diplomatic actions that seek to impact upon the long-term national interests of Russia and China. Such a focus may give the false impression that the U.S. is the only global actor, and that other nations simply react to its policies and behaviour. This is not my intention, for while it is the case that the United States has a powerful position relative to other countries and thus an increased ability to overcome resistance in its efforts to project power and influence into other regions of the world, the United States is not the only major player of the Great Game.
When considering recent reports that the Chinese military had discussed the possibility of constructing a naval base in Somalia to combat piracy there is a critical need to understand some of the basic principles that drive Chinese strategies for power projection. By understanding these principles we can form more accurate impressions of present Chinese foreign policy and better predict China’s future course. To this end it is imperative to consider China’s energy resource requirements and the means by which China obtains these resources. One document that I have personally found to be particularly informative was a 2006 report entitled ‘String of Pearls: Meeting the Challenge of China’s Rising Power across the Asian Littoral’ published by the Strategic Studies Institute of the United States Army War College (SSI). The full text of this publication is freely available on the SSI website.
In brief, the report explains that the Chinese government’s chief strategic concerns are intrinsically linked with its economy – the satisfaction of the Chinese people, the survival of the central bureaucracy and upholding China’s domestic security during a period of globalization means that the Chinese economy must continue to expand outward. To sustain the required economic growth however, China relies on the importation of foreign energy resources; oil and natural gas. As China has been unable to secure these resources through overland pipelines from Russia and Central Asia (see my post on US disruption of natural gas pipelines in Central Asia for context), China is heavily reliant on the Middle East and Africa for these goods. Their great distance from China, however, means that China relies almost exclusively on sea transport and secure Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC) to be able to meet its resource demands and chief strategic concerns (see Figure 1 below).

Figure 1. Critical Chinese Sea Lines of Communication – Oil flow
Source: Wikipedia
The security of China’s SLOCs are paramount – the report notes that at the time, over 70% of China’s oil imports were from the Middle East and Africa, all of which were transported by sea. The centrality of China’s SLOCs in expanding thier economy has given rise to a geopolitical strategy of forging beneficial relationships, projecting influence and establishing a forward presence along critical SLOCs. This geopolitical strategy has been dubbed the “String of Pearls”, where each ‘pearl’ along the string is a centre of Chinese influence or military presence. These pearls are found scattered along the path of China’s SLOCs “from the coast of mainland China through the littorals of the South China Sea, the Strait of Malacca, across the Indian Ocean, and on to the littorals of the Arabian Sea and Persian Gulf” (p.3). Specific examples of Chinese ‘pearls’ given in the report include: an upgraded airstrip in Vietnam, ports located in Pakistan near the Strait of Hormuz, a rail line from Southern China to the Gulf of Thailand, a plan to build a canal in Thailand’s Kra Isthmus in order that ships heading for China may avoid the chokepoint at the Strait of Malacca.
The String of Pearls theory explains some of the key motivations behind Chinese power projection and identifies the sites that China is likely to project its influence to in the future. The theory shows why the recent discussions about building Chinese naval bases in Somalia to combat pirates were so important; even if they were downplayed in the Chinese media (e.g. China Daily). Reports about the possibility of building naval bases in Somalia should be read through the lens of the String of Pearls theory.
China may build Middle East naval base
Malcolm Moore,
London Telegraph,
30th December, 2009
In a sign of the growing confidence of the Chinese military, Admiral Yin Zhuo said that the country may set up a base in the Gulf of Aden in order to support missions against Somali pirates.
Since the end of last year, China has sent four flotillas to the Middle East in order to take part in anti-piracy operations together with US, European, Indian and Russian warships. The latest mission, which departed from China in October, involved two missile frigates.
Mr Yin said a permanent base in the region would help supply Chinese ships. “We are not saying we need our navy everywhere in order to fulfil our international commitments,” he said, cautiously. “We are saying to fulfil our international commitments, we need to strengthen our supply capacity.”
His words, which came just a few days after China rescued 25 sailors from Somali pirates, were posted in an interview on the Defence ministry website. China is reported to have paid a USD4 million (Pounds2.5 million) ransom to free the De Xin Hai, a coal carrier.
Mr Yin, who is a senior researcher at the navy’s Equipment Research centre, pointed out that the first Chinese ships in the Gulf of Aden spent 124 days at sea without docking, a logistical challenge.
However, Chinese ships have since been permitted to dock at a French base.
“If China establishes a similar long-term supply base, I believe that the nations in the region and the other countries involved with the (anti-pirate) escorts would understand,” he said. “I think a permanent, stable base would be good for our operations.”
Yin added he was aware that Chinese naval ships in the waters near the Gulf have aroused suspicions, but believed other nations understood Beijing’s intention was to counter pirates. As the world’s largest importer of oil, China is believed to want to establish bases throughout the Indian Ocean and South China Sea to protect its tankers.
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If, as many people believe, the possibility of a rising China attempting to supplant the US in the future is something worthy of serious consideration, we may see the first signs of this along areas near China’s SLOCs. One major question highlighted in the SSI report was whether China would “continue to cede security guarantees to the United States or if China one day will make a bid for regional primacy”(p.8). As the news article printed above demonstrates, China is no longer fully reliant on the US for the security of its shipping in Somalia – Chinese flotillas have already been deployed there. Despite this, at present, China has been content to follow an internationalist approach to the piracy issue, working in conjunction with the EU, NATO and the U.S. (source: CCTV). The discussion of the Somalian naval base is a step towards, or at least may be percieved by the United States as, a step towards a future bid for Chinese primacy in the region.
On a side note, if China were to make serious strides in this direction do not be surprised if you see a lot more pirate activity in Somalia, most likely in the form of privateers paid to go after Chinese shipping and international transports travelling to China. The necessity for secure SLOCs is a double edged sword for China. While one the one hand it is one of the main motivating factors behind the global projection of Chinese influence, it is also a major vulnerability that could be exploited if the US ever felt sufficiently threatened. Without overland pipelines from Central Asia or Russia, Chinese energy security is particularly vulnerable and the Gulf of Aden off the Somalian coast is a convienient choke point (see Figure 2).

Figure 2. Map of Gulf of Aden
Source: Wikipedia
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